Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance after Pahalgam attack: What does this mean?

What is the Indus Waters Treaty, why was it suspended, and what does this mean for India and Pakistan? Explained

India, in an emergency meeting on Wednesday, announced the immediate suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 in response to the Pahalgam terror attack that left 26 people dead and 10 injured a day earlier.

 

The move was made during a high-level meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attended by key officials, including Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

 

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri formally declared the decision on Wednesday night, stating that the treaty would remain ‘in abeyance’ until Pakistan took ‘credible and irrevocable’ steps to cease its support for cross-border terrorism. This is the first instance of the treaty being suspended since its inception, despite decades of armed conflict and diplomatic strain between the two countries. 

 

 

What does ‘in abeyance’ mean?

Suspending the treaty ‘in abeyance’ implies that it has not been revoked or terminated but placed on temporary hold. This allows India to pause its obligations under the agreement without formally withdrawing from it — a significant diplomatic manoeuvre given the legal structure of the treaty.

 

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan. It was signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi, and was brokered by the World Bank after nine years of negotiations. It was signed by then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan. The treaty governs the allocation of water from the Indus River system between the two countries. 

  

Between India and Pakistan, who governs which rivers?

Under the arrangement, India was granted rights to the Eastern Rivers: the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.

Meanwhile, Pakistan received the Western Rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

Approximately 70 per cent of the water in the system was allotted to Pakistan. India is obligated to allow the flow of Western Rivers to Pakistan, with limited rights for agriculture, transport, and hydroelectric projects that do not obstruct river flow.

 

Treaty survived decades of Indo-Pak tensions

Despite wars and intensifying hostilities, the treaty has remained intact for over six decades. Even the deadly 2016 Uri terror attack, which resulted in the death of 18 Indian soldiers, did not prompt such a response.

 

Can the Indus Waters Treaty be terminated?

No. The Indus Waters Treaty does not contain a clause allowing either country to unilaterally terminate the agreement. Any alterations require mutual consent. Disputes under the treaty are to be resolved through a stepwise mechanism involving the Permanent Indus Commission, a neutral expert, and if necessary, a court of arbitration. 

 

However, legal experts argue that India can invoke Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which permits withdrawal from a treaty due to significant changes in circumstances.

 

How are disputes on the Indus water resolved?

A Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) was established, consisting of one commissioner from each country. Commissioners meet once a year to discuss any concerns, with the World Bank acting as a neutral observer and arbitrator.

 

At present, Darpan Talwar serves as the Commissioner (Indus) within the Department of Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation, Ministry of Jal Shakti. Syed Muhammad Mehar Ali Shah serves as the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters.

 

The World Bank does not appoint a permanent representative to the Indus Waters Treaty. Instead, personnel are assigned on a case-by-case basis.

 

India has several options with IWT: Expert

Former Indus Water Commissioner PK Saxena noted that this suspension may be a precursor to full abrogation.

 

“This could be the first step towards the abrogation of the treaty, if the government so decides,” Saxena told PTI in an interview on Wednesday. “Although there is no explicit provision in the treaty for its abrogation, Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on Law of the Treaties provides sufficient room under which the treaty can be repudiated in view of the fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred with regard to those existing at the time of conclusion of the treaty,” he said.

 

According to Saxena, India now has several strategic options, such as halting the sharing of river flow data with Pakistan, proceeding with previously restricted reservoir flushing, and undertaking storage projects on the Western Rivers, actions that were earlier constrained by treaty provisions.

 

He also noted that visits by Pakistani officials to Indian dam and project sites, a treaty requirement, could now be suspended. Additionally, operational protocols, such as restrictions on the timing of reservoir filling, are no longer enforceable.

 

India seeks treaty modification with Pak

India’s concerns over the treaty have been building. In January 2023, it issued a notice to Pakistan seeking modifications, citing “fundamental and unforeseen changes in circumstances.” These include population shifts, climate change, clean energy imperatives, and the persistent threat of terrorism. 

Tensions were further heightened by Pakistan’s repeated objections to India’s hydroelectric projects, including the Kishanganga and Ratle projects in Jammu and Kashmir. Though these are ‘run-of-the-river’ projects, which do not block the natural flow of water, Islamabad has raised concerns about their compliance with treaty terms. 

Despite the diplomatic turbulence, India had not moved to suspend the treaty until now.

 

How does the suspension impact Pak?

The suspension could have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan, which relies heavily on the Indus River system for agriculture, particularly in its Punjab province. With India no longer obligated to share flood data, the risk of unanticipated flooding increases, especially during the monsoon season, a report by The Indian Express reads.

 

The Indus River system plays a vital role in the geopolitical and economic stability of the region. The lines of partition were drawn across this basin, with India positioned as the upstream country and Pakistan downstream, fuelling a historical water-sharing dilemma. 

At present, India lacks the infrastructure to immediately stop or divert river flows to its own use. However, the suspension expands India’s long-term manoeuvrability over the water resources of the Indus system.

 

Pahalgam attack and punitive measures

The decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty is one of five punitive measures taken by India following the Pahalgam attack, where 26 people, mostly tourists, were gunned down. Aside from the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, India announced the following actions: 

- Closure of the Attari integrated check post

- Revocation of the SAARC visa exemption scheme for Pakistani nationals

- Expulsion of military attachés from the Pakistani High Commission

- Reduction in diplomatic staff strength (cut to 30 from 55 from both high commissions) 

Pakistan has not yet issued an official response.

 

(With agency inputs)